Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
